Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.290264 0.335637 0.385026 0.442681 0.508034 0.579709 0.664161
2025-06-29 0.212636 0.268972 0.335266 0.418675 0.520422 0.640088 0.791039
2025-07-06 0.157846 0.217628 0.293388 0.395633 0.529093 0.696347 0.920630
2025-07-13 0.126811 0.189816 0.275454 0.398842 0.570235 0.797756 1.120039
2025-07-20 0.099576 0.161780 0.252389 0.391534 0.596732 0.884442 1.313507
2025-07-27 0.081141 0.142706 0.238535 0.394849 0.638615 0.998096 1.560013
2025-08-03 0.067042 0.127386 0.227535 0.400579 0.685038 1.124752 1.842615
2025-08-10 0.051768 0.106621 0.203891 0.382136 0.691137 1.191763 2.044958
2025-08-17 0.039233 0.087698 0.179560 0.358015 0.683951 1.236673 2.218449
2025-08-24 0.031329 0.075705 0.165262 0.348961 0.700982 1.323295 2.470820
2025-08-31 0.025111 0.065550 0.152353 0.340052 0.716725 1.409512 2.732937
2025-09-07 0.021497 0.060233 0.148165 0.347540 0.764407 1.558365 3.122729
2025-09-14 0.016651 0.050725 0.133306 0.331112 0.764611 1.623653 3.376393
2025-09-21 0.013264 0.043844 0.122794 0.322077 0.778656 1.717685 3.696860
2025-09-28 0.010476 0.037629 0.112349 0.311068 0.786764 1.801333 4.008289
2025-10-05 0.009034 0.034905 0.110138 0.319394 0.839339 1.982816 4.536874
2025-10-12 0.007481 0.031236 0.104462 0.317900 0.869100 2.120136 4.991041
2025-10-19 0.006433 0.028886 0.101938 0.324220 0.918783 2.307252 5.571970
2025-10-26 0.005581 0.026906 0.100021 0.331873 0.973156 2.511704 6.213169
2025-11-02 0.004409 0.023128 0.091382 0.318477 0.971354 2.586947 6.576702
2025-11-09 0.003378 0.019392 0.081693 0.299628 0.951694 2.617310 6.841709
2025-11-16 0.002748 0.017121 0.076387 0.293146 0.964913 2.729170 7.308768
2025-11-23 0.002233 0.015110 0.071387 0.286477 0.976472 2.838315 7.781210